Preseason Rankings
Ivy League
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
77 Harvard 48.5%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 10 - 4 +6.7      +2.4 104 +4.3 51 64.1 304 0.0 1 0.0 1
122 Yale 21.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 9 - 5 +3.1      +2.0 110 +1.1 132 70.8 130 0.0 1 0.0 1
125 Penn 22.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 5 +2.8      +0.1 166 +2.7 94 70.5 136 0.0 1 0.0 1
145 Princeton 14.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 8 - 6 +1.3      +1.1 131 +0.2 159 62.7 325 0.0 1 0.0 1
207 Brown 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 6 - 8 -2.8      -0.5 180 -2.3 258 76.2 36 0.0 1 0.0 1
229 Columbia 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 5 - 9 -4.0      +0.4 155 -4.4 312 73.1 77 0.0 1 0.0 1
248 Cornell 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 5 - 9 -5.0      -1.0 198 -3.9 297 71.3 115 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 Dartmouth 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 4 - 10 -6.1      -3.3 264 -2.8 275 66.2 249 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Harvard 2.1 49.3 22.7 13.1 7.6 4.0 2.0 1.1 0.3
Yale 3.0 23.3 23.0 19.1 14.0 9.8 5.7 3.5 1.6
Penn 3.2 21.9 21.2 19.5 14.3 10.6 6.5 4.0 1.9
Princeton 3.6 15.4 18.8 18.6 16.4 12.7 9.3 5.7 3.1
Brown 5.0 4.7 7.9 11.7 15.0 17.2 16.2 15.7 11.6
Columbia 5.4 3.2 6.5 9.8 12.7 16.5 17.7 18.2 15.4
Cornell 5.7 2.2 4.7 8.0 11.0 15.1 18.2 20.3 20.6
Dartmouth 6.0 1.5 3.3 5.8 9.3 13.4 18.1 22.3 26.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Harvard 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.5 8.7 12.0 15.0 17.6 16.2 12.8 5.8
Yale 9 - 5 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 3.1 5.9 8.4 11.1 13.6 14.9 14.4 12.2 8.0 4.6 1.3
Penn 9 - 5 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.8 9.3 11.0 14.6 14.3 13.9 11.5 7.7 3.8 1.3
Princeton 8 - 6 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.0 5.5 8.5 11.2 13.1 14.3 13.5 11.8 8.6 5.2 2.6 0.8
Brown 6 - 8 0.9 3.0 6.1 9.4 12.3 14.2 14.7 12.9 10.4 7.1 4.7 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.1
Columbia 5 - 9 1.5 4.4 8.1 11.5 13.7 14.7 14.1 11.2 8.6 5.7 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Cornell 5 - 9 2.2 6.1 10.3 13.0 14.9 14.8 12.6 9.9 7.3 4.4 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
Dartmouth 4 - 10 3.4 8.4 12.5 15.2 15.5 14.4 11.3 8.3 5.2 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Harvard 49.3% 37.2 9.9 1.9 0.2 0.0
Yale 23.3% 15.0 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
Penn 21.9% 13.8 6.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
Princeton 15.4% 9.4 4.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
Brown 4.7% 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Columbia 3.2% 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Cornell 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dartmouth 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Harvard 48.5% 45.1% 3.5% 13   0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.6 2.8 6.2 11.4 9.9 6.8 3.7 1.6 51.5 6.3%
Yale 21.7% 20.3% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.8 3.9 4.9 4.2 3.3 1.6 78.3 1.8%
Penn 22.0% 20.5% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 2.1 78.0 1.9%
Princeton 14.8% 14.2% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.1 2.6 2.3 85.2 0.8%
Brown 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Columbia 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Cornell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Harvard 48.5% 2.3% 47.4% 14.0% 4.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Yale 21.7% 1.5% 21.1% 4.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 22.0% 2.1% 21.0% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 14.8% 1.4% 14.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.7 7.1 0.2
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 93.3 5.1 0.1
2nd Round 24.8% 0.3 75.2 24.3 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 8.4% 0.1 91.6 8.3 0.0
Elite Eight 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2 0.0
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1